Wuliangye (000858) first coverage: significant progress in marketing reform and digital transformation
Wuliangye, as the king of Luzhou-flavor liquor, has a rich history and has obvious advantages in production areas and production capacity.
Wuliangye Yibin is located in the core area of “Chinese Liquor Golden Triangle” and is known as the “Hometown of Famous Liquor”.
Wuliangye owns China’s largest liquor production base “Shili Wine City”, the ancient cellar of the Ming Dynasty with a history of more than 600 years, and ancient secret recipe crafts. It also has the leading in scale expansion.Second to Maotai.
With the lifting of the ban on the liquor production line by the policy, the Matthew effect of the industry will be further highlighted, which will bring better development opportunities to advantageous production areas and famous wine companies.
The high-end liquor has a solid texture and ample price and space.
The liquor industry has gradually transitioned from a stage of rising volume and price to a stage of structural growth, entering a long cycle of structural prosperity.
The competition pattern of high-end liquor is stable, and 深圳桑拿网 the proportion of sales is still rising. At the same time, it is scarce and there is still room for rising rigid prices.
It is estimated that the CAGR of high-end liquor consumption in 19-21 is about 10%, and the average CAGR of high-end liquor is about 5%.
The development potential energy has been enhanced, and the power storage group has been in the “post-100 billion” era.
19 years as the marketing reform year, the full introduction of the control panel distribution model, the use of digital empowerment to promote the conversion, from the high-level structure to the channel staff have made corresponding optimization adjustments, which will effectively guarantee the company’s future reform measures.
We believe that the company has started to transform from “incremental reform” to “inventory reform”. The continuous reform reform measures will greatly strengthen the company ‘s development momentum. Conservatively forecast that the sales volume of Wuliangye premium wines will be 11% CAGR and CAGR 6% in the next three years.Faster than the industry growth rate, and promoted the company’s profit margin increase, contributing to the Group’s goal of sprinting the world’s top 500.
Investment suggestion: It is estimated that the company’s operating income for 19-21 will be US $ 503.5 / 596 / 68.3 billion, net profit attributable to the mother will be US $ 17.21 / 214.8 billion and EPS will be 4.
We believe that the company’s marketing reform progress in 19 years has made a significant landing. The merger of product upgrades, management efficiency enhancement effects and digital empowerment transformation. It is estimated that the company’s net profit compound annual growth rate in 19-21 will be 23%.The average PE28X estimate corresponds to a target price of 152.
04 yuan, covering for the first time, giving an “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: downward pressure on the macro economy intensifies; adjustment in pricing policy of the liquor industry, price increase is less than expected