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Seiko Steel Structure (600496): Outbreak of orders in the first year of the steel structure industry is expected to continue high growth

Seiko Steel Structure (600496): Outbreak of orders in the first year of the steel structure industry is expected to continue high growth
The steel structure will be catalyzed by the strengthening of policy support and assembly type catalysts. The company will be the industry’s leading GBS system with the most comprehensive coverage and the assembly rate can reach 95%. The 2019 performance is expected to exceed expectations and increase its holdings.  The Vulcan Mountain Hospital was delivered on February 2. The speed of China rose again in nine days, and the construction method of the assembled steel structure was also a key factor.  Maintain overweight.Considering that the company is a domestic steel structure leader with comprehensive strength, the GBS system has the most comprehensive coverage in the industry and the assembly rate can be as high as 95%, occupying and developing the steel structure general contract, we maintain the forecast that the company’s EPS in 2019-21 will be 0.22/0.28/0.36 yuan growth rate of 121/28/26%, maintaining a target price of 4.62 yuan, the target price corresponds to 16/2020/21.5/12.8 times PE, maintaining overweight. The Vulcan Mountain Hospital has been successfully delivered. The Raytheon Mountain Hospital has been completed 80% of the time. The assembly of steel box houses is one of the important guarantees.1) Vulcan Mountain Hospital was successfully handed over on February 2, and it will be completed in nine days according to the entry time; Raytheon Mountain Hospital has completed 80% of the delivery soon; 2) Both hospitals use steel box rooms for assembly installation3) Q1 is a low percentage of traditional off-season construction, which is not affected by the consideration of the rush period; and the steel structure has less labor, less epidemic prevention pressure, and the cycle meets the requirements of the later rush period. The company has strong technology in the field of prefabricated steel structures, and the GBS building system has the most comprehensive partial coverage.  1) The company has leading technology and a complete system in the field of prefabrication. The GBS building system basically covers the five major product systems of mainstream building demand: residential / apartment / school / hospital / office building. The assembly rate can reach 95%; 2) the systemRealize the original PSC technology innovation, realize the mixed use of steel structure and concrete, which can improve the application function of steel structure, and solve the expected steel structure / specific concrete defects; 3) The company through direct management EPC project turnkey and complete technologyThe two modes of joining and cooperation promote the assembly type simultaneously. At present, the technology joining has opened up six major regional markets; 4) The subsidiary, Green Building Technology, won the first prize of the National Science and Technology Progress Award, and then demonstrated its leading edge in technology. Three major logics prove that the company’s 2020 performance will continue to grow rapidly.1) Abundant orders in hand and optimized structure: Approximately 14 billion (+14) in the new decade in 2019.5%), about 6.1 billion yuan (+29 million yuan).6%); public buildings signed a new increase of 84.7%, an increase of 143 million yuan 南宁桑拿 or more.4%; 2) The new starting point is expected to continue to grow at a high rate: ① The company’s general contracting layout has strong early experience and strong strength, and it has already won 23.500 million euros in Shaoxing exhibition hall, a number of important EPCs, will benefit from the steel structure turnkey model into the fast track of development ② urbanization promotes the construction of infrastructure projects, livelihood projects such as hospital education, three cultural centers and other cultural projects, and industrial upgradingDemand enhancement ③ Provide end-end concentration enhancement, as the industry leader enhances competitive advantage / gate performance consolidation; 3) The overall contract is good for increasing scale / improving profit / improving cash flow, and the company’s profit margin and settlement will improve. Core risks: epidemic spread, less-than-expected turnkey / assembled advancement, traditional construction rampant, etc.