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Changan Automobile (000625): Retail volume continues to be better than wholesale volume. Wholesale volume is expected to improve in March after destocking.

Changan Automobile (000625): Retail volume continues to be better than wholesale volume. Wholesale volume is expected to improve in March after destocking.
Core perspective Changan Ford continued to take the initiative to destock in February. It is expected that the incremental retail sales in January and February will be much better than the wholesale sales.Changan 深圳桑拿网 Ford sold 6,799 units in February, replacing 81% every year.Comparison of production and sales, crops in January and February total 1.09 million vehicles, gradually wholesale sales 2.150,000 vehicles, the output is far lower than sales, indicating that the company continued to actively destock in February.After Changan Ford removed inventory in January and February, it is expected that the wholesale volume growth rate will decrease in March and it is expected to narrow.The new Fox will be launched gradually at the end of 18. In 19, preliminary changes to the Sharp World and Taurus, the replacement of the Pterodactyl, and the Lincoln model will tend to be made in the fourth quarter of 19. It is expected that Changan Ford sales and profit will be improved quarter by quarter in 2019. Changan Mazda’s sales volume has narrowed 北京夜网 slightly.Changan Mazda’s sales in February were 6,897 units, 21 a year in the past year.6%, the average annual growth rate narrowed by 22 in January.3 averages, sales improved.Changan Mazda’s output in January and February 1.860,000 vehicles, lower than sales, auto companies are also actively destocking.Driven by CX-8 and New Angkor Sera in 2019, Changan Mazda’s earnings are expected to promote rapid growth. Changan ‘s autonomous vehicle fleet has narrowed, and the launch of new models is expected to drive sales growth.Changan’s own brand sales in February 6.160,000 vehicles in the past ten years.2%, the average annual rate was narrower than January in January.7 first-class, sales improved.Changan’s own brand output was 5 in February.460,000, lower than sales, the company took the initiative to destock.Since the launch of the newly remodeled CS35 Plus in October last year, sales have continued to rise, and it has ranked in the top two among autonomous small SUVs.The new premium sedan-operated SUV model CS85COUPE was officially launched in early March. Changan launched the replacement CS75 and CS95. It is expected that the independent brand will grow steadily in 19 years. Financial forecast and investment advice: The forecast for 2018-2020 is 0.12, 0.14, 0.92 yuan, because the company’s third quarter of 2018, the fourth quarter extended, we use PB to make predictions.Comparable companies have an average PB of 1 in 19 years.About 1 times, the company will be given PB1 in 2019.1x estimate, target price 10.15 yuan, maintain BUY rating. Risk warning: Changan Ford sales volume is lower than expected risk, Changan Mazda sales volume is lower than expected risk, Changan independent brand sales volume is lower than expected risk.