Yangnong Chemical (600486)： Volume and price of pyrethroid rose in peak season

Yangnong Chemical (600486): Volume and price of pyrethroid rose in peak season

The company released the first quarter report for 2019, and the gross profit margin increased significantly. The company released the first quarter report for 2019 and achieved revenue of 15.

70 ppm, 10-year average2.

50%; achieve net profit attributable to mother 3.

27 ppm, an increase of 19 years.

43%, net profit after deducting non-recurring3.

20,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.

92%.

In terms of profit margin, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 35 due to the increase in volume and price during the peak season of the pyrethroid business.

75%, an increase of 3 over the same period last year.

28 pct, the company’s gross profit margin reached a new high; the net profit margin was 20.

85%, an increase of 2 over the same period last year.

97.

In terms of expense ratios, the company entered a sales expense of zero.

1.7 billion, with revenue accounting for 1.

11%, a year increase of 0.

03pct; Management and R & D expenses 1.

3.1 billion, accounting for 8.

32%, an increase of 1 per year.

18 pct; financial expenses 0.

21 trillion, compared with 0 in the same period last year.

5 billion.

Enter the company to accrue asset impairment losses of 0.

30 trillion, mainly because the increase in the account is greater than the same period of the previous year, the corresponding provision for bad debts increased; the fair value change income was entered as 0.

310,000 yuan, due to foreign exchange hedging.

In the peak season, the quantity and price of pyrethroid rose, and the loss of wheat straw dragged down the herbicide business to 都市夜网 achieve herbicide sales1.

06 for the first time, at least in the short term 42.

5%; average sales price 2.

97,000 yuan / ton, previously temporarily 23.

4%.

According to our model calculations, there is a contradiction in the probability of deviation in the sales of wheat straw in Q1. We are cautious about the company’s wheat straw shrinkage in 2019. In the long term, we expect to promote the worldwide wheat straw shrinkage-resistant seeds worldwide.Expected to pick up.

Achieved zero pesticide sales.

41 for the first time, an increase of 52 from the previous month.

2%, an increase of 16 per year.

0%; average sales price 24.

76 million / ton, an increase of 5 from the previous month.

90% increase by 17 per year.

1%.

In the coming season, the volume and price of the company’s pyrethroid business rose, contributing to the company’s main profit. Along with the 3-21 Xiangshui Incident fermentation, safety production and environmental protection inspection, the pesticide supply in Jiangsu and the whole country is expected to continue to tighten, and the company’s high profit promotion will continue.

The company’s long-term worry-free company Youjia’s third-phase project has begun construction. We judge that the third-phase project is expected to contribute incremental profits in 2020.

Calculating with reference to the return on investment in the construction of the Yangnong Air Force project, Youjia Phase III is expected to create a profit of nearly US $ 600 million for the company.

In addition, the investment in the fourth phase of Youjia is expected to continue to increase in the third phase, and the company’s long-term growth is worry-free.

Investment suggestion: We estimate the company’s net profit attributable to its mothers to be 11 in 19-21.

160,000 yuan, 12.

5 billion and 14.

480,000 yuan, EPS is 3 respectively.

60 yuan, 4.

03 yuan and 4.

67 yuan, PE is 16.

24X, 14.

50X and 12.

52X, maintaining the “highly recommended” level.

Risk reminder: The new project is not up to expectations, the sales of dicamba are not up to expectations, the environmental protection is relaxed, the price of pyrethroids has fallen sharply, and the purchase of Sinochem assets has been too expensive.

Depth-Company-Yangquan Coal (600348)： 14% growth in first three quarters, steady performance and good performance, low estimates

Depth * Company * Yangquan Coal (600348): 14% growth in first three quarters, steady performance and good performance, low estimates

In the first three quarters of 19 years, net profit attributable to mothers was 1.6 billion, an annual increase of 14%.

In the third quarter, the net profit attributable to the mother was 5.

The 3 trillion chain remained flat and performed well, continuing a solid and sound track record.

The cost control is better, the financial structure is optimized, and the yield has increased. Under the environment of falling coal prices, the net profit per ton of coal still increased by 2%.

The company has better potential for endogenous and epitaxial growth, and its earnings have risen steadily. It is estimated to be not expensive (19-year P / E ratio is only 6.
.

3 times), benefiting from Shanxi’s national reform.

Maintain BUY rating.

Key points to support the rating The 3 quarter report has better results, in line with expectations, optimized financial structure, and improved profitability.

In the first three quarters of 19, net profit attributable to mothers was 1.6 billion, an annual increase of 14%.

The net profit after deduction is 16 trillion, an annual increase of 29%, and it has performed well.

In the third quarter, the net profit attributable to the mother was 5.

300 million yuan remained flat and performed well.

The main business income in the first three quarters was 24.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 3 per year.

1%.

Gross profit increases by 7 per year.

7% to 470,000 yuan.

The period expense ratio is from 6.

2% dropped to 5.

7%, mainly due to a substantial decline in financial expenses by 39% to 2.

600 million.

Asset-liability ratio dropped to 50% from 55% in the same period last year.

Operating profit 武汉夜生活网 was US $ 2.2 billion, an increase of 13% per year.

Maximum profit margin improved: gross profit margin increased from 17.
.

4% increased to 19.

4%, operating margin from 7.

7% increased to 9.

1%, with a net profit margin of 5.

6% increased to 6.

5%.

Gearing ratio by 7.

8% dropped to 7.

3%.

Production increased by 7%, prices and costs both fell, and net profit per ton of coal increased by 2% to 55 yuan.

In the first three quarters, coal output was 3,056 tons, an increase of 7%, and sales were basically unchanged at 5,452 tons. The price of coal including outsourced coal fell by 5% to 411 yuan / ton, and production costs fell by 7% to 333 yuan, per ton of coalGross profit increased 3% to 78 yuan, and net profit per ton of coal increased 2% to 55 yuan.

Among them, the third quarter cereal output increased by 6.

8% to 1,039 is expected, sales volume growth 9% to 2,021 is expected.
The price per ton of coal, including purchased coal, fell by 7% to 398 yuan / ton, the cost per ton of coal fell by 5%, and the gross profit per ton of coal fell by 14% to 73 yuan.

Advantages: The company has better potential for endogenous and epitaxial growth. Wenjiazhuang Coal Mine’s 90 hole expansion to 500 has been approved by the National Development and Reform Commission.
The group has approximately 3,000 tons of capacity under construction.

The company’s own profit is stable and its performance is stable, which is not expensive.

It is estimated that due to increasing downward pressure on the future economy and downward pressure on market coal prices, we will reduce our earnings by 6% and 12% to 0 by 2020 and 2021.

87 yuan and 0.

90 yuan (previous forecast: 0.

92 yuan, 1.

02 yuan).

Estimated to be cheap, with a P / E ratio of 19 in 19
.

3x, maintain BUY rating.

The main risks faced by the rating were higher than expected; coal prices fell.

Baby-friendly Room (603214) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review： Profitability Continued to Improve Performance A little bit More Than Expected

Baby-friendly Room (603214) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Profitability Continued to Improve Performance A little bit More Than Expected

Revenue grew steadily, and the performance slightly exceeded expectations. The company achieved operating income in the first three quarters.

41 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.

52%; net profit attributable to mother 0.

8.7 billion, an annual increase of 32.

95%, net profit after deduction is 0.

73 ppm, an increase of 33 in ten years.

75%.

In the third quarter of 19, the company achieved operating income5.

62 ppm, an increase of 11 in ten years.

68%; net profit attributable to mother 0.

25 ppm, an increase of 49 in ten years.

46%, net profit after deduction is 0.

22 ppm, an increase of 56 in ten years.

62%.

The company’s performance was slightly higher than expected, mainly due to the increase in gross profit margin and overall profitability.

Gross profit margin continued to increase, profitability increased 19Q3 The company’s gross profit margin was 30.

97%, an increase of 3 per year.

85 pct; gross profit margin of milk powder increased by 3.

59pct with action circuit breaker.

Increase in total expense ratio by 2.

45pct, of which the selling expense ratio is 21.

32%, rising by 1 every year.

19 points; management expense ratio 4.

10%, increase by 2 every year.

01pct; financial expense ratio -0.

50%, a decline of 0 every year.

75 points.

The net interest rate is 4.

80%, increase by 1 every year.

19 points.

21 new stores opened in 3Q, in line with expectations. 21 new stores opened in 3Q19, 39 new stores opened in 1Q-3Q, 14 closed, and 25 stores opened.

Among them, Fujian, Chongqing and other new districts and sub-new districts opened 3Q stores in 3 and 2 respectively.

As of 3Q19, the company has a total of 266 directly operated stores.

33 stores have been signed for opening.

E-commerce + private brand exploration speeded up 19H1, and the company’s e-commerce platform achieved 0 sales revenue.

32 trillion, accounting for 2 of operating income.

68%, revenue increased by 87.
.
11%, the company’s target APP sales reached 1 billion.
19H1, the company’s own brand merchandise sales1.

0.9 billion, accounting for 9% of merchandise sales.

82%, an increase of 36 per year.

33%.

The risk reminds the company that the same store growth rate reduces the risk; the country’s population increase 北京夜生活网 will increase.

Regional mother-to-child chain leader, maintaining “overweight” rating company is the regional mother-to-child chain leader in East China, establishing key regional breakthrough strategies in East China, Sichuan and Chongqing, and South China.

The company’s expansion has accelerated in recent years, and it is expected to open 300 stores in the next three years.

The company seeks opportunities in the industry chain for mergers and acquisitions and intends to make a breakthrough in the field of maternal and infant services.

We maintain our profit forecast and expect net profit for 2019-211.

51/1.

94/2.

51 ppm, CAGR 25 revenue / profit 2019-2021.

96/27.

95%, maintaining a reasonable estimate of 44.

67-47.

65 yuan (corresponding to 2020PE 23-25X), maintaining the “overweight” level.

Platinum (688333)： the leading domestic industrial leader in metal additive manufacturing

Platinum (688333): the leading domestic industrial leader in metal additive manufacturing
Leading domestic metal additive manufacturing with business covering the entire industry chain.Polytech is an emerging enterprise specializing in industrial-grade metal additive 天津夜网 manufacturing (3D printing). It is currently the largest metal additive manufacturing technology provider with the largest installed capacity of metal 3D printing equipment in China.And other national-level additive manufacturing research projects, won the first and second prizes for national defense science and technology progress, and the first OEM award of the first global 3D printing award.The company’s main business involves R & D and production of 3D printers, custom production of 3D products, R & D and production of 3D printed powders, and agency sales of imported 3D equipment and accessories. At present, it has integrated a variety of complete metal 3D printing industry service chains, and custom production of 3D printed products in 2018.And the production of printing equipment accounted for 55% and 28% of the company’成都桑拿网s gross profit, respectively. The upstream and downstream businesses are working together, and the rapid growth of the additive manufacturing industry has guaranteed the company’s performance.According to Wohlers Associates, Inc.And IDC statistics, the global additive manufacturing output value from 22 in 2012.800 million US dollars increased to 73 in 2017.US $ 3.6 billion, with an annual compound strength of 26.20%, and it is expected that by 2020, the annual compound strength of the global additive manufacturing industry will try to remain at 22.30%, the global additive manufacturing output value will reach 28.9 billion US dollars by 2020.At present, the upstream and upstream raw material supply end of the additive manufacturing industry continues to innovate in terms of material types and production technologies, and is full of flowers; gradually expand the application field in downstream applications, and increase the proportion of direct manufacturing applications.Benefiting from the rapid development and innovation drive of the industry, the company, as a full-industry chain technology provider with a breakthrough in the field of additive manufacturing, achieved sustained high growth. Domestic competition is still in the blue ocean, and the company’s competitive advantages help the market share continue to increase.At present, the main competitors in the global additive manufacturing market are from Europe and the United States and other regions and regions. Domestic companies are in the follow-up stage, and the domestic market is still in the blue ocean.The company expands its competitive advantages in the field of additive manufacturing. First, the team has strong R & D capabilities and has been focusing on additive manufacturing since 1995. Second, it has advanced technology and is committed to and participates in the construction of domestic additive manufacturing standard systems., Long-term service for large domestic aerospace and other enterprises, and provide overseas companies such as Airbus 3D printing equipment and parts, and gradually develop the rapid development of the domestic market, the company’s competitive advantages continue to expand, market share continues to increase. Give a reasonable and reasonable target interval of 30.22-38.07 yuan.Benefiting from the rapid growth of the additive manufacturing market, the company’s corresponding EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.95, 1.25, 1.67.Combining the absolute estimation method and the relative estimation method, we believe that the reasonable estimation interval of the secondary market is a breakthrough.22-38.07 yuan, take the price center 34.15 yuan, corresponding to the PE of 2019-2021 is estimated to be 36x, 27x and 20x. risk warning.1) The growth of the additive manufacturing industry was less than expected; 2) The company’s technology research and development progress was less than expected; 3) The company’s project production was less than expected.

Yili (600887)： The stock incentive plan quickly landed and the performance evaluation requirements were looser

Yili (600887): The stock incentive plan quickly landed and the performance evaluation requirements were looser

Commentary event: Yili shares announced the 2019 annual stock incentive plan. It intends to grant 182,920,025 shares in one lump sum to 474 incentive targets (including company directors, executives, core technology (business) backbone and key employees), accounting for 3 of the company’s total share capital.%, Grant price 15.

46 yuan / share.

The supplementary stock to be granted in this plan is based on 2018, and the sales restriction will be lifted in five phases. The performance evaluation goal is to deduct non-attributed net profit and its return on net assets.

First, the stock incentive plan quickly landed, covering a wide range, and improved the incentive and restraint mechanism. The company’s board of directors could pass the repurchase program on April 8, and began to repurchase the company’s shares with its own funds from May 6.Completed the repurchase of 182,920,025 shares, accounting for 3% of the total share capital. On July 25, an extraordinary meeting of the board of directors was held, and the plan on the completion of the repurchase of the company’s stock purchase was changed. Ten days later, a supplementary stock incentive plan was announced yesterday., Share repurchase and stock incentive plans quickly landed.

The plan covers a wide range of incentives, including 474 serving as directors, senior managers, core technical (business) backbones and other employees that the company considers motivating and which have a direct impact on the company’s operating performance and future development.

The purpose of the plan is to further improve the corporate governance structure, improve and improve the incentive and restraint mechanism, mobilize the enthusiasm of the operation management team, and effectively combine the interests of shareholders, the interests of the company and the interests of the core team.

The stock award price is 50% off the closing price of the trading day before the announcement, which provides sufficient incentive.

Second, considering the long period and the recent market situation, the performance evaluation requirements for unlocking sales restrictions are relatively relaxed. The shares proposed to be granted in the plan are based on 2018, and the sales restrictions will be lifted in five phases, each of which will account for 20%.The net profit rate and return on net assets attributable to mothers are required to be based on the deducted non-mother net profit in the consolidated statement caliber in 2018 as the base, and the net profit in 2019-2023 will increase (excluding the costs caused by the corresponding expenses that contribute to the incentive plan)Impact) is not less than 8%, 18%, 28%, 38%, 48% respectively; the return on net assets in each period is not less than 15%.

In 2018, the company’s operating income increased by 16.

92%, net profit attributable to mothers and net profit attributable to non-mothers increased respectively.

31% and 10.

32%, the net interest rate is obvious.

The company’s current revenue volume is huge, but only from the scale of deducting non-returning mother’s net profit, the base in 2018 is not high. With the recovery and improvement of net interest rate, eliminating the incentive for deducting non-returning mother’s net profit growth elastic competitionforce.

In view of the company’s multiple key ratios in the past three years and the first quarter of 2019: the company’s sales gross profit margin has stabilized at a high level. Although the price of raw milk has risen since the second quarter of this year, it has benefited from the continuous upgrade of the product structure.The proportion continues to increase, as well as the development of new categories and new businesses. It is still a high probability that the sales gross profit margin will continue to be high in the next few years. The sales expense ratio in 2018 has reached a stage high and will gradually improve in the future. The management expense ratio has accompanied the past.With economies of scale showing a trend of marginal improvement, improvement will remain the main trend in 2019-2023, excluding the expected incentive costs.

Taken together, after excluding the impact of incentive costs, the net sales margin is expected to continue to improve on the basis of a low base in 2018.

As long as the income continues to maintain a good growth, after deducting the non-incentive expenses, the return to the mother’s net profit will complete the probability conversion of the assessment requirements.

From the perspective of interval composite strength, the target is buffered by 8% in 2019. The assessment requirements in 2020-2023 are difficult before high and low, which is in line with the reasonable law of business development.

Another assessment indicator, the company’s ROE (extension) after deduction is maintained at a level of about 22% for a long period of time, and there is at least a significant improvement in 2019Q1.

Considering the expansion of the company’s capital expenditure in the next two years, the return on net assets will have some pressure, but from the perspective of existing and alternative space, the probability of reaching it is also very high.

From the market’s expected target analysis, the main difference is that the performance evaluation requirements are relatively loose, and the market is worried that the actual incentive effect will exceed expectations.

The root cause of the differences lies in the differences between the market and listed companies’ judgments on the industry and market’s future development trends and competitive landscape.

Whether it is considered that the assessment requirements are too loose due to emotional unacceptability, or based on the relatively difficult background of the industry and market disclosed by listed companies, market replacement time and appropriate adjustments are needed to digest.

Third, consider the impact of incentive fee vendors on the profit of the statement and lower the profit forecast. We maintain our judgment on the company’s fundamentals: revenue continues to grow rapidly, and the top five billion target in 2020 is likely to be achieved.The year may usher in an inflection point.

However, considering the non-linear amortization of incentive expenses, which will affect the profit of the statements in the next three years, we appropriately lower the company’s profit forecast.

Earnings forecast and rating: It is estimated that revenue growth rates for 2019-2021 will be 14%, 11%, and 10% respectively; profit growth rates will be 11%, 9%, and 17% respectively; and the corresponding EPS will be 1.

17.1.

28, 1.

50.

Considering the company’s fundamentals and combining short-term market sentiment, according to the 北京夜网 performance in 2019, 30 times PE is given, and the target price for the corresponding stage is 35.

00 yuan, “overweight” level.

Risk reminders: fluctuations in raw material prices; deterioration of the sales environment; food safety issues, etc.

Hongfa (600885) Company Research： Electric Vehicle Wave Strikes Attempts to Enter a New Boom Cycle

Hongfa (600885) Company Research: Electric Vehicle Wave Strikes Attempts to Enter a New Boom Cycle

The global leader in relays has been manufacturing high-end “core assets” with the potential.

Hongfa has been focusing on the relay field for more than 35 years. The winning business structure based on quality is the key to the success of the company’s series of business layouts.

In 2018, Hongfa Relays accounted for 14% of the world’s total and China’s 25.

0%, ranking first in the world.

In 2019, Hongfa’s relay assembly line 南京桑拿网 automation rate has reached more than 80%, and the customer complaint rate is only 0.

13PPM, far exceeds the requirements of the general manufacturing industry for accuracy and quality. In the future, with continuous capital expenditure, the leading edge will continue to expand.

We believe that Hongfa has fully developed the potential of “core assets” in high-end manufacturing, and the company’s evaluation system and estimation center are expected to upgrade from general industrial products to advanced manufacturing.

Hongfa fully benefited from the wave of electric vehicles.

The company’s products include seven major relay categories, such as GM, automotive, electric power (including new energy vehicles), and industrial control, as well as cultivated products such as capacitors.

The top four products with current revenue share are GM (home appliances) (38%), electricity (20%), automotive relays (10%), and new energy vehicles (9).

1%). In the future, the increase in the market share of new energy vehicles and automobiles will become the core of the company’s performance growth.

The current global electric vehicle penetration is accelerating, and the industry is facing a 1-N opportunity of policy and market dual resonance. We estimate that the global new energy vehicle relay market will reach 8.2 billion by 2025, which is 4 times that in 18 years. Hongfa ‘s domestic market share40%, with high-quality customers such as CATL, BYD, etc., and have made breakthroughs overseas since 19 years. At present, they have received orders from Volkswagen, Daimler, Tesla, Ford and other customers.

In the automotive field, Hongfa acquired Haila Automotive Electronics at the end of 19th, and its customer resources have been enriched again. The contraction of its competitors will also help Hongfa become a global leader in automotive relays.

The downstream of relays is extensive, and the gradual innovation features are conducive to the continuous expansion of the faucet expansion.

The relay is a basic electronic component, and the risk of technology replacement is low. There is a rigid demand. The global market size is nearly 50 billion yuan.

Product quality and consistency + incremental innovation reserves are the core of differentiated competition for relay companies. The current stage of the industry is more conducive to the expansion of the leader (through high-quality customer structure and product experience accumulation), and a winner-take-all competition pattern may emerge.

Since its establishment, Hongfa has continuously learned from companies in Europe, Japan and other countries.

Investment suggestion: Based on the needs of Hongfa’s main products in the downstream industry, its own production scheduling and the development of new industries, we estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 2019-2021 will be 7, respectively.

06/8.

69/10.

43 ppm, an increase of 1 each year.

0% / 23.

1% / 19.

9%, EPS is 0.

95/1.

17/1.

40 yuan.

Maintain “Buy” investment rating.

Risk warning: new energy vehicle sales risk, home appliance demand risk, low-voltage appliance market development risk, exchange rate risk.

Dongjiang Environmental Protection (002672) quarterly report comment： 19Q1 performance is slightly lower than expected, optimistic about potential expansion in other places

Dongjiang Environmental Protection (002672) quarterly report comment: 19Q1 performance is slightly lower than expected, optimistic about potential expansion in other places

19Q1 The company achieved operating income / net profit attributable to mothers / net profit attributable to non-mothers8.

1/1.

1/1.

0 million yuan, +6% /-11% /-12% at the beginning of the year, of which the main business profit grew steadily by 8% to 2.

US $ 800 million. The net profit attributed to the parent is due to the increase in period expenses (including R & D expenses). The total expenses for the period of 19Q1 were 1.

6 trillion, the cost rate during the period reached 20.

4%, one year +2.

1pct.

At present, the industry continues to be booming. After Dongjiang Environmental Dating Huihong Group as a war investment, it tried to fully rely on Huihong Group’s rapid expansion of hazardous waste production capacity in Jiangsu.

We expect the company EPS to be zero in 2019-20.

61/0.

72 yuan (0 before adjustment.

66/0.

79 yuan), giving the company 24-26xP / E in 2019, corresponding to a target price of 14.

64-15.

86 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.

In 19Q1, the company’s performance of operating income / net profit attributable to mothers / net profit attributable to non-mothers 8 was slightly lower than expected. The increase in expenses during the period was the main reason for the decrease in profits.

1/1.

1/1.

0 million yuan, +6% /-11% /-12% at the beginning of the year, of which the main business profit grew steadily by 8% to 2.

US $ 800 million. The net profit attributed to the parent is due to the increase in period expenses (including R & D expenses). The total expenses for the period of 19Q1 were 1.

6 trillion, the cost rate during the period reached 20.

4%, one year +2.

1pct.
Among them, sales expenses / financial expenses increased by 58% / 39% per year. The competition in the hazardous waste market of the main business was intensified. The company’s growth in market expansion led to increased sales expenses and the increase in reported interest expenses after some projects under construction were resolidified.

In addition, the company’s cash flow is good, benefiting from the increase in net loans to customers of small loan companies and the company’s centralized hazardous cash flow business, which has a better hazardous waste business. In 19Q1, its operating net cash flow exceeded + 496% to 3.

200000000.

The prosperity of the industry is expected to continue. Dating Huihong Group will help expand its capabilities to the end of 2018. The company’s processing capacity will end at about 170, which translates to 60%. It is expected to gradually reach about 180 at the end of 2019, and is expected to further climb to 350 inches in 2020.

At present, the hazardous waste disposal industry is still in short supply, and environmental protection supervision is gradually getting serious. It is expected that the non-compliant treatment capacity will be further eliminated, and the industry’s prosperity is expected to continue.

For reporting equity, Huihong Group and its wholly-owned subsidiary Huihong Venture Capital obtained the company through equity transfer and centralized trading10.

With 63% equity, Huihong Group is a state-owned enterprise in Jiangsu Province. It has strategically invested in Dongjiang Environmental Protection and strengthened its environmental protection business 杭州桑拿网 cooperation.

We believe that Jiangsu ‘s hazardous waste production ranks first in the country and the capacity gap is obvious. After Dongjiang Environmental Protection and Huihong Group have invested in the war, it is expected that Jiangsu will rapidly expand hazardous waste production capacity and increase long-term profitability.

Lowered profit forecast and maintained “Buy” rating. Taking into account the lower-than-expected 19Q1 results, we lowered the profit forecast and expect the company to return to its parent’s net profit for 2019-20205.

37/6.

3.7 billion (5 before adjustment).

83/7.

40,000 yuan), the corresponding EPS is 0.

61/0.72 yuan (0 before adjustment.

66/0.

79 yuan), and dating 2021 EPS0.

83 yuan.

With reference to the average P / E 20x of comparable companies in 2019, but considering the development of the Jiangsu Chemical Industry Park 杭州桑拿 after the explosion to improve the prosperity of the hazardous waste disposal industry, leading companies should enjoy an appropriate premium.

Increase the company’s 2019 target P / E to 24-26x, corresponding to a target price of 14.

64-15.

86 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: The project’s production progress is less than expected, the large amount of investment causes the deterioration of cash flow conditions, and the loss of core technical talents.

JAC (600418)： JAC Volkswagen is expected to open the sequel to Volkswagen Skoda

JAC (600418): JAC Volkswagen is expected to open the sequel to “Volkswagen Skoda”

Company status We studied Jianghuai Automobile on September 11 and communicated with the company.

Comments Light trucks maintain stable profitability, and industry consolidation and progress amplify leading traditional advantages.

The company’s cumulative sales of light trucks this year have reached 130,000 units, every 4 units.

2%, mainly affected by the “large tonnage small standard” incident.

JAC light trucks maintained the second place in the industry’s city share (the market share in January-August was 10.

8%), which is the most important source of profit for the company.

As a traditional light truck leader, Jianghuai is biased towards the mid-to-high-end upgrade route. It is expected to continue to benefit from the high-end trend of light trucks and industry consolidation and clearance, especially to eliminate non-compliant vehicles and car companies after the “large tonnage and small standard” incident.The overall concentration of light trucks has moved up, and the leading advantages have continued to expand.

Passenger car profit pressure is tight, and product layout still needs to be adjusted.

The company’s passenger car sales reached 11 in the first eight months of this year.

40,000 vehicles, a decrease of at least 17%. The sales share of the passenger car segment has fallen from 15 to 16 years to 60% and less than 40%. Due to increasing competition in the industry, the company ‘s main passenger vehicle salesThe downturn and maximum production capacity have resulted in weak profitability of the overall segment.

At the same time, its new energy passenger car iEV series has also suffered from the impact of compensating the decline, and sales have increased in recent months.

We believe that the company still needs to adjust the layout of passenger car products, adjust existing products, dispose of assets and production capacity that drag down profitability, and focus more on the profitable segment.

JAC Volkswagen is expected to become Volkswagen’s cost-effective new energy vehicle manufacturing center.

The first model of JAC Volkswagen ‘s new brand, Sihao, was unveiled last year. Last year, the company also signed a partnership with Volkswagen and Seat Auto to invest in the establishment of a new energy research and development center, which further deepened the cooperation between JAC and Volkswagen.

We believe that JAC, with its cost-effective electric vehicle platform and technology, is expected to become Volkswagen’s cost-effective new 合肥夜网 energy vehicle manufacturing center in China, opening the sequel to “Volkswagen Skoda” in the era of new energy vehicles.

We believe that if there is further cooperation with the public, JAC will also need to prove its strength through market feedback after the launch of the Sihao brand and other products, and be recognized by the public and the market.

Estimates suggest that we temporarily maintain the company’s 2019 and 2020 earnings forecasts unchanged.

The company’s current price corresponds to 44.

3x / 21.

1x 19e / 20e P / E, 0.

8x / 0.

7x 19e / 20e P / B, we maintain the company’s “Neutral” rating and maintain a target price of 5.

61 yuan, corresponding to 47x / 22.

4x 19e / 20e P / E, 0.

8x / 0.

8x 19e / 20e P / B, 6% upside from current price.

Risk cooperation with the public was less than expected, and light truck sales exceeded expectations.

Wuliangye (000858) first coverage： significant progress in marketing reform and digital transformation

Wuliangye (000858) first coverage: significant progress in marketing reform and digital transformation

Wuliangye, as the king of Luzhou-flavor liquor, has a rich history and has obvious advantages in production areas and production capacity.

Wuliangye Yibin is located in the core area of “Chinese Liquor Golden Triangle” and is known as the “Hometown of Famous Liquor”.

Wuliangye owns China’s largest liquor production base “Shili Wine City”, the ancient cellar of the Ming Dynasty with a history of more than 600 years, and ancient secret recipe crafts. It also has the leading in scale expansion.Second to Maotai.

With the lifting of the ban on the liquor production line by the policy, the Matthew effect of the industry will be further highlighted, which will bring better development opportunities to advantageous production areas and famous wine companies.

The high-end liquor has a solid texture and ample price and space.

The liquor industry has gradually transitioned from a stage of rising volume and price to a stage of structural growth, entering a long cycle of structural prosperity.

The competition pattern of high-end liquor is stable, and 深圳桑拿网 the proportion of sales is still rising. At the same time, it is scarce and there is still room for rising rigid prices.

It is estimated that the CAGR of high-end liquor consumption in 19-21 is about 10%, and the average CAGR of high-end liquor is about 5%.

The development potential energy has been enhanced, and the power storage group has been in the “post-100 billion” era.

19 years as the marketing reform year, the full introduction of the control panel distribution model, the use of digital empowerment to promote the conversion, from the high-level structure to the channel staff have made corresponding optimization adjustments, which will effectively guarantee the company’s future reform measures.

We believe that the company has started to transform from “incremental reform” to “inventory reform”. The continuous reform reform measures will greatly strengthen the company ‘s development momentum. Conservatively forecast that the sales volume of Wuliangye premium wines will be 11% CAGR and CAGR 6% in the next three years.Faster than the industry growth rate, and promoted the company’s profit margin increase, contributing to the Group’s goal of sprinting the world’s top 500.

Investment suggestion: It is estimated that the company’s operating income for 19-21 will be US $ 503.5 / 596 / 68.3 billion, net profit attributable to the mother will be US $ 17.21 / 214.8 billion and EPS will be 4.

46/5.

43/6.

39 yuan.

We believe that the company’s marketing reform progress in 19 years has made a significant landing. The merger of product upgrades, management efficiency enhancement effects and digital empowerment transformation. It is estimated that the company’s net profit compound annual growth rate in 19-21 will be 23%.The average PE28X estimate corresponds to a target price of 152.

04 yuan, covering for the first time, giving an “overweight” rating.

Risk warning: downward pressure on the macro economy intensifies; adjustment in pricing policy of the liquor industry, price increase is less than expected

High Light Software (002063)： Undertaking the Ubiquitous Strategic Platform State Power Commerce Synergy Effect

High Light Software (002063): Undertaking the “Ubiquitous” Strategic Platform State Power Commerce Synergy Effect
Investment Highlights The company released its 2019 Interim Report: 2019H1 to achieve operating income6.32 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.52%; net profit attributable to mother is 0.80 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.50%; deduct non-attributed net profit 0.79 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.63%; gross profit margin 67.01%, a decrease of 0 per year.87 points; net interest rate 10.80%, falling by 1 every year.67 points.Single quarter view: 2019Q2 achieved revenue 3.31 ppm, an increase of 1 per year.75%; net profit attributable to mother 0.7.3 billion, an increase of 4 previously.85%; gross margin 75.58%, an increase of 2 per year.67 points; net interest rate 22.17%, a year up 0.66 points.Performance is in line with market expectations. The Group’s resource management has grown steadily and emerging businesses have grown rapidly.2019H1 power industry revenue5.USD 8.9 billion, an annual increase of 11.64%, revenue share increased to 93.19%.Among them, the core business group’s resource management business grew steadily (+17 year-on-year.85%), consulting and customized services, diversified energy cloud services, blockchain and AI, smart organization business growth trend, business development progress smoothly; corporate big data and cloud services, financial management, group risk control management, etc.The decrease in the 成都桑拿网 business year was due to the delay in order rhythm and fluctuations in demand. Undertaking the “ubiquitous” strategic platform, the synergy effect of the State Grid e-commerce has been prominent.Under the background of the construction of the Internet of Things in the power grid, the State Grid e-commerce entered and signed an in-depth cooperation agreement with the company, making the company a strategic platform for the construction of “three types and two networks”; in the first half of the year, the company actively deployed regional energy management, power market transactions, and comprehensive energyIn areas such as services, we have launched cooperative projects such as distributed generation market-oriented trading technology and “State Grid Small” financial robots. The company’s core technology has been deeply integrated 杭州桑拿 with the State Grid e-commerce data platform to work together to promote the ubiquitous electric power Internet of Things construction. Advantages of electric power informationization, multi-point efforts to deploy the energy Internet.The company has deeply cultivated power informatization for many years, and has participated in large-scale informatization engineering construction for many times. The power industry has a deep understanding and accumulation, and its share and advantages are obvious. It has replaced the company to actively lay out the upstream and downstream industrial chains of the energy industry, relying on “cloud, large, physical, intellectualNew technologies such as mobile, mobile and blockchain support digital transformation and upgrading of enterprises, and grasp the dividends of power reform and energy Internet development. Expenses were properly controlled during the period, and accounts receivable increased for many years.In 2019H1, the company’s management / sales / financial expenses decreased by 0.02/0.45/0.13pct, during which the rate of expense fell to 0.60pct to 52.42%, proper cost control; accounts receivable increased by 57.93%, due to the regular impact of payment settlement in the power industry. Investment suggestion: The company has focused on electric power automation and informatization for many years, actively promoted the integration of “two industrializations”, and promoted the full use of domestic intelligence and informatization investments under the background of the layout of the entire electric power industrial chain and the smart city solution platformGoing up, we expect the company’s net profit attributable to its mothers to be 2 in 2019-2021.28/2.87/3.61 trillion, EPS is 0.27/0.34/0.43 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of PE on August 30, 2019 were 33.5/26.6/21.1x, maintain BUY rating. Risk reminder: Electricity reform advances less than expected, ubiquitous electric power Internet of Things construction fails